ITA test: live rules vs no B1 on red Stage (2026-11-13)

ITA test: live rules vs no B1 on red Stage (12 Nov 2026 close)

This page shows the same ITA history twice so the two rule sets can be checked trade by trade. Both scenarios use Yahoo Finance daily bars from 4 Jan 2021 through the 12 Nov 2026 close, ITA’s own price-based Stage on every bar, Stochastic 14,3,5, Bollinger 18,2, one position at a time, fills at the signal-day close, no costs. It is a backtest only: nothing was bought or sold.

  • Scenario A, the live rules (set E + P1, as on the dashboard charts).
  • Scenario B, the correction: the same rules, except that a B1 oversold-cross buy (%K crosses above %D with both under 20) is blocked when the Stage on the cross day is Rolling Over or Faded (red background). All other buy and sell rules are identical.

Result to the 12 Nov 2026 close: Scenario A +91.2%, Scenario B +108.1%, ITA buy & hold +136.9% over the full period. The correction blocked 2 B1 buys on ITA. Of the matching B1 trades in Scenario A, 0 closed as winners and 1 as a loser; 1 is still open (27 Aug 2026: -8.1% at the 12 Nov 2026 close); their returns add up to -9.9%. The 27 Aug 2026 case: A bought B1 on 27 Aug 2026 at 78.09 and still holds it (-8.1% at the 12 Nov 2026 close). B skipped it (Stage Rolling Over) and bought on 9 Oct 2026 (B2 embed-low end) at 68.88 instead, +4.1% at the 12 Nov 2026 close. Each block also shifts the entry price of the trade B takes instead, so the full-period gap comes from these trade-by-trade differences, compounded over time. These match the cross-ETF backtest (to the 9 Nov 2026 close: A +91.0%, B +107.9%; this build gives +91.0% and +107.9% on the same dates).

Not advice. Highlighted rows (yellow) = the 27 Aug 2026 case.

Summary

Summary: Scenario A vs Scenario B vs ITA buy & hold (to the 12 Nov 2026 close)

PeriodScenario A: live rulesScenario B: no B1 on red StageITA buy & hold
Full period (from 4 Jan 2021)+91.2%+108.1%+136.9%
2021+5.8%+1.6%+13.2%
2022+6.7%+6.7%+7.8%
2023+5.4%+5.4%+13.6%
2024+9.6%+9.6%+15.9%
2025+45.9%+45.9%+48.2%
2026 (to 12 Nov 2026)-1.3%+11.9%-3.1%
Last 1 year (from 12 Nov 2025)+5.9%+20.0%+2.6%
Last 6 months (from 12 May 2026)-7.8%+4.5%-4.5%
Worst drop, full period-20.8%-24.0%-20.1%
Trades (closed + open)23 + 123 + 1–
Win rate (closed trades)65% (15 of 23)65% (15 of 23)–

Strategy columns = mark-to-market from a flat start on 4 Jan 2021, including the open position. Years run from the first to the last close of the year (2026 to 12 Nov 2026); 1 year from 12 Nov 2025, 6 months from 12 May 2026. Shaded = best in that row. Win rate counts closed trades only.

Scenario A: live rules (set E + P1)

Markers:buy (rule written below)sell (reason written above)

ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF) daily OHLC from 4 Jan 2021 through the 12 Nov 2026 close from Yahoo Finance (indicators warmed up on bars from Nov 2019). SMA 50/100/200, Bollinger 18,2 and Stochastic 14,3,5 calculated from these closes; default view = last year, scroll or zoom back for the full history. Test signals, one position at a time, so buys and sells always alternate (rules tested from a flat start on the first valid bar, 4 Jan 2021 where the ETF traded then). BUY (green up triangle, rule written below it) on the first close that meets, in this order: B1 oversold — %K crosses above %D with both under 20; B2 a below-20 embed ends; B3 trend pullback — close above SMA 50 and %K crosses above %D after %K dipped under 50 since the last sell; B4 middle-band reclaim — 2 closes in a row above the 18-day Bollinger middle band after a close at or below it, with %K above %D; B5 re-entry after a sell — close above the highest close of the prior 20 days, above SMA 50, with %K above %D. No buy while %K and %D both stay under 20 for 3+ closes (red band). SELL (orange down triangle, reason written above it) only after a buy, and only on a close below SMA 68 (the 68-day simple average of closes, not drawn): S1 %K crosses below %D with both above 80 (held while both stay above 80 for 3+ closes, green band, per Ira Epstein’s embed rule); S2 either line closes back under 80 after such an embed. If S1 or S2 happens while the close is still at or above SMA 68, the sell waits and S4 fires on the first later close below SMA 68; while the Stage (here the price-based proxy) is Rolling Over or Faded (red background) a waiting sell fires already on the first close below SMA 40 (S5). Rule set chosen on all narrative ETFs together (cross-ETF re-tune and Stage-aware test, 11 Nov 2026), not on this ETF alone. Background colour = ITA’s Stage from the price-based proxy on every bar (the dashboard Stage rules applied to ITA vs SPY prices only; no mention data, so Start, Peak and Faded cannot appear): green Push Up; yellow Recovery Attempt or Basing; orange Pullback; red Rolling Over; grey Unclassified. The same proxy is used in the cross-ETF backtests, so this chart matches them.

Scenario A: all 24 trades

#Buy dateBuy ruleBuy closeSell dateSell ruleSell close% gainDays held
17 Jan 2021B3 trend pullback31.2212 May 2021S4 waited for a close below SMA 6834.08+9.2%125
217 May 2021B3 trend pullback35.3313 Jul 2021S4 waited for a close below SMA 6835.91+1.6%57
328 Jul 2021B4 middle-band reclaim36.2926 Oct 2021S4 waited for a close below SMA 6835.24-2.9%90
42 Nov 2021B1 oversold cross34.8731 Dec 2021S1 overbought cross, close below SMA 6834.26-1.8%59
54 Jan 2022B5 20-day-high re-entry35.4220 Jan 2022S4 waited for a close below SMA 6834.74-1.9%16
68 Feb 2022B4 middle-band reclaim35.0226 Apr 2022S4 waited for a close below SMA 6835.39+1.1%77
74 May 2022B2 embed-low end35.4910 Jun 2022S2 embed-high end, close below SMA 6833.41-5.9%37
821 Jun 2022B1 oversold cross32.191 Sep 2022S4 waited for a close below SMA 6833.52+4.1%72
98 Sep 2022B2 embed-low end33.9519 Jan 2023S4 waited for a close below SMA 6836.14+6.5%133
1024 Jan 2023B3 trend pullback37.4010 Mar 2023S4 waited for a close below SMA 6837.68+0.7%45
1130 Mar 2023B4 middle-band reclaim38.1325 Apr 2023S4 waited for a close below SMA 6838.09-0.1%26
1218 May 2023B4 middle-band reclaim37.7817 Aug 2023S4 waited for a close below SMA 6837.93+0.4%91
1330 Aug 2023B4 middle-band reclaim38.9116 Oct 2023S1 overbought cross, close below SMA 6836.44-6.3%47
141 Nov 2023B3 trend pullback36.8617 Jan 2024S5 Stage Rolling Over: waited sell fired on a close below SMA 4039.77+7.9%77
1519 Jan 2024B2 embed-low end40.5725 Jun 2024S4 waited for a close below SMA 6844.10+8.7%158
1611 Jul 2024B4 middle-band reclaim44.5430 Oct 2024S5 Stage Rolling Over: waited sell fired on a close below SMA 4049.11+10.3%111
176 Nov 2024B2 embed-low end50.3921 Feb 2025S4 waited for a close below SMA 6849.78-1.2%107
1826 Feb 2025B1 oversold cross50.383 Apr 2025S4 waited for a close below SMA 6849.26-2.2%36
1915 Apr 2025B4 middle-band reclaim50.1013 Nov 2025S4 waited for a close below SMA 6868.35+36.4%212
2025 Nov 2025B2 embed-low end67.4719 Mar 2026S4 waited for a close below SMA 6875.77+12.3%114
211 Apr 2026B2 embed-low end74.5520 Apr 2026S2 embed-high end, close below SMA 6877.28+3.7%19
226 May 2026B2 embed-low end74.473 Jun 2026S4 waited for a close below SMA 6874.96+0.7%28
2311 Jun 2026B5 20-day-high re-entry78.6821 Aug 2026S4 waited for a close below SMA 6879.11+0.6%71
2427 Aug 2026 27 Aug caseB1 oversold cross78.0912 Nov 2026 openstill held (valued at last close)71.73-8.1%77

Scenario B: live rules + no B1 on a red Stage

Markers:buy (rule written below)sell (reason written above)B1 blocked (red), hollow grey

ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF) daily OHLC from 4 Jan 2021 through the 12 Nov 2026 close from Yahoo Finance (indicators warmed up on bars from Nov 2019). SMA 50/100/200, Bollinger 18,2 and Stochastic 14,3,5 calculated from these closes; default view = last year, scroll or zoom back for the full history. Scenario B change: B1 (oversold cross) does not fire when the Stage that day is Rolling Over or Faded (red background); the hollow grey triangle marked “B1 blocked (red)” shows each blocked B1. On a blocked day the other buy rules (B2–B5) are still checked in the usual order; everything else is the same as Scenario A. Test signals, one position at a time, so buys and sells always alternate (rules tested from a flat start on the first valid bar, 4 Jan 2021 where the ETF traded then). BUY (green up triangle, rule written below it) on the first close that meets, in this order: B1 oversold — %K crosses above %D with both under 20; B2 a below-20 embed ends; B3 trend pullback — close above SMA 50 and %K crosses above %D after %K dipped under 50 since the last sell; B4 middle-band reclaim — 2 closes in a row above the 18-day Bollinger middle band after a close at or below it, with %K above %D; B5 re-entry after a sell — close above the highest close of the prior 20 days, above SMA 50, with %K above %D. No buy while %K and %D both stay under 20 for 3+ closes (red band). SELL (orange down triangle, reason written above it) only after a buy, and only on a close below SMA 68 (the 68-day simple average of closes, not drawn): S1 %K crosses below %D with both above 80 (held while both stay above 80 for 3+ closes, green band, per Ira Epstein’s embed rule); S2 either line closes back under 80 after such an embed. If S1 or S2 happens while the close is still at or above SMA 68, the sell waits and S4 fires on the first later close below SMA 68; while the Stage (here the price-based proxy) is Rolling Over or Faded (red background) a waiting sell fires already on the first close below SMA 40 (S5). Rule set chosen on all narrative ETFs together (cross-ETF re-tune and Stage-aware test, 11 Nov 2026), not on this ETF alone. Background colour = ITA’s Stage from the price-based proxy on every bar (the dashboard Stage rules applied to ITA vs SPY prices only; no mention data, so Start, Peak and Faded cannot appear): green Push Up; yellow Recovery Attempt or Basing; orange Pullback; red Rolling Over; grey Unclassified. The same proxy is used in the cross-ETF backtests, so this chart matches them.

Scenario B: all 24 trades

#Buy dateBuy ruleBuy closeSell dateSell ruleSell close% gainDays held
17 Jan 2021B3 trend pullback31.2212 May 2021S4 waited for a close below SMA 6834.08+9.2%125
217 May 2021B3 trend pullback35.3313 Jul 2021S4 waited for a close below SMA 6835.91+1.6%57
328 Jul 2021B4 middle-band reclaim36.2926 Oct 2021S4 waited for a close below SMA 6835.24-2.9%90
45 Nov 2021B5 20-day-high re-entry36.3231 Dec 2021S1 overbought cross, close below SMA 6834.26-5.7%56
54 Jan 2022B5 20-day-high re-entry35.4220 Jan 2022S4 waited for a close below SMA 6834.74-1.9%16
68 Feb 2022B4 middle-band reclaim35.0226 Apr 2022S4 waited for a close below SMA 6835.39+1.1%77
74 May 2022B2 embed-low end35.4910 Jun 2022S2 embed-high end, close below SMA 6833.41-5.9%37
821 Jun 2022B1 oversold cross32.191 Sep 2022S4 waited for a close below SMA 6833.52+4.1%72
98 Sep 2022B2 embed-low end33.9519 Jan 2023S4 waited for a close below SMA 6836.14+6.5%133
1024 Jan 2023B3 trend pullback37.4010 Mar 2023S4 waited for a close below SMA 6837.68+0.7%45
1130 Mar 2023B4 middle-band reclaim38.1325 Apr 2023S4 waited for a close below SMA 6838.09-0.1%26
1218 May 2023B4 middle-band reclaim37.7817 Aug 2023S4 waited for a close below SMA 6837.93+0.4%91
1330 Aug 2023B4 middle-band reclaim38.9116 Oct 2023S1 overbought cross, close below SMA 6836.44-6.3%47
141 Nov 2023B3 trend pullback36.8617 Jan 2024S5 Stage Rolling Over: waited sell fired on a close below SMA 4039.77+7.9%77
1519 Jan 2024B2 embed-low end40.5725 Jun 2024S4 waited for a close below SMA 6844.10+8.7%158
1611 Jul 2024B4 middle-band reclaim44.5430 Oct 2024S5 Stage Rolling Over: waited sell fired on a close below SMA 4049.11+10.3%111
176 Nov 2024B2 embed-low end50.3921 Feb 2025S4 waited for a close below SMA 6849.78-1.2%107
1826 Feb 2025B1 oversold cross50.383 Apr 2025S4 waited for a close below SMA 6849.26-2.2%36
1915 Apr 2025B4 middle-band reclaim50.1013 Nov 2025S4 waited for a close below SMA 6868.35+36.4%212
2025 Nov 2025B2 embed-low end67.4719 Mar 2026S4 waited for a close below SMA 6875.77+12.3%114
211 Apr 2026B2 embed-low end74.5520 Apr 2026S2 embed-high end, close below SMA 6877.28+3.7%19
226 May 2026B2 embed-low end74.473 Jun 2026S4 waited for a close below SMA 6874.96+0.7%28
2311 Jun 2026B5 20-day-high re-entry78.6821 Aug 2026S4 waited for a close below SMA 6879.11+0.6%71
249 Oct 2026 27 Aug caseB2 embed-low end68.8812 Nov 2026 openstill held (valued at last close)71.73+4.1%34

Every B1 buy that the correction blocked (Scenario B)

#DateCloseStage that day%K / %DWhat this B1 trade returned in Scenario ANext buy in Scenario B instead, and how that trade did
12 Nov 202134.87Rolling Over19.3 / 16.8-1.8% (sold 31 Dec 2021 at 34.26, S1 overbought cross, close below SMA 68; 59 days)5 Nov 2021, B5 20-day-high re-entry at 36.32: -5.7% (sold 31 Dec 2021)
227 Aug 2026 27 Aug case78.09Rolling Over9.5 / 8.0-8.1% (still open, valued at the 12 Nov 2026 close 71.73; 77 days)9 Oct 2026, B2 embed-low end at 68.88: +4.1% (still open at the 12 Nov 2026 close)

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