Covers the US close on Wed 4 Nov. The scan ran from 08:57 to 09:14 Manila time, about 17 minutes. All signals are provisional until about 19 Nov, and no trades were placed.
Four narratives changed stage
- Oil, the Iran war and Hormuz went from Peak to Rolling over and stays at consider trimming. USO fell 8.1% to 145.41 and closed below its lower 18-day, 2-standard-deviation Bollinger Band.
- US midterms went from Start to Rolling over and is now consider trimming. X mentions hit a record 139,572 on 4 Nov, and defense and policy ETFs sold off.
- Defense primes went from Push up to Rolling over and is now consider trimming. ITA and PPA closed back below their 50-day simple moving averages, and $126M left ITA over the past month.
- Rate-cut rotation went from Rolling over back to Start and stays at watch. IWM climbed back above its 50-day simple moving average and ITB jumped 7.3%, but $2.63B left IWM over the past month.
Banks met the buy setup, but I kept them at watch because KBWB closed above its upper Bollinger Band. Defensive healthcare, GLP-1 and quality dividends stay at consider buying, but XLV, IYH, VHT and PPH are still above their upper bands, so Epstein’s rule still says wait.
Epstein readings worth noting
- The 14,3,5 stochastic has been embedded above 80 for 17 days on XLU and 13 to 14 days on SCHD, XLV, IYH and VHT. It has been embedded below 20 for 7 days on SLV.
- TLT dipped under 80 today. Under the one-day rule, its embed holds only if it recovers tomorrow.
- GDX’s 50-day simple moving average crossed below its 200-day (a death cross), even though GDX also closed above its 18-day middle band for the first time.
- URNM’s Bollinger Bands are in a tight squeeze, at the 8th percentile of their width over the last 120 days.
Data so far
6 days of X mention counts and 3 days of full narrative scoring. Today’s scan read 457 items: 125 X posts, 141 YouTube videos, 150 news items and 41 Stocktwits items.
Paper-trading research log. Not financial advice.