Paper-trading research log, not financial advice. Indicators: 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of daily closes; relative strength vs SPY over 1 month; 18-day Bollinger Band with 2 standard deviations; 14,3,5 stochastic with 20/80 embedding levels.
Prices through the US close on Wed 2026-11-04. All signals are PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). Paper buys are on hold; none were placed.
| Theme | Narrative | ETFs | Stage | Signal | Reason and key ETF indicators | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI build-out | AI chips vs AI software | SMH, SOXX, IGV, DRAM, PSI, XSD | Rolling over | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | SMH 504.27 (-2.8% on 11-04) is -11.5% vs its 50-day and -3.3% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -18.7 pts, 1-month flow +$1.81B. SMH closed below its 18-day middle band (545.95); close at lower 18-day 2-SD band (%B 0.07). X mentions 38,102 on 11-04 (+11% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.5 (chips and memory sold off on Democratic wins in data-center states (CNBC, Reuters, Daily Rip); AMD beat but group fell). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| AI build-out | Hyperscalers and AI platform mega-caps | MAGS, XLC, XLK, SKYY | Rolling over (was Rolling over (price-only)) | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | MAGS 70.28 (+2.2% on 11-04) is -1.0% vs its 50-day and +5.8% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -3.3 pts, 1-month flow −$270M. MAGS closed below its 18-day middle band (71.22); stochastic rose above 20 today after embed (1st day). X mentions 9,782 on 11-04 (-20% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.3 (Big Tech rallied (MSFT about +7%), hyperscaler credit spreads tightened; capex delays (MSFT/IREN) noted). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| AI build-out | Neocloud and AI optics | NCLD, LYTE | Rolling over (was Rolling over (price-only)) | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | NCLD 13.99 (-9.1% on 11-04) is -33.6% vs its 50-day and n/a vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -41.0 pts, 1-month flow +$34M. NCLD closed below its 18-day middle band (16.8). X mentions 6,849 on 11-04 (+26% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.4 (Oracle/CoreWeave seen most exposed to data-center scrutiny (Baird via CNBC); CoreWeave bond yield >15%; Coherent beat). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| AI build-out | Cybersecurity | CIBR, BUG, HACK | Rolling over | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | CIBR 97.36 (+0.1% on 11-04) is -4.1% vs its 50-day and +16.5% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -8.4 pts, 1-month flow +$377M. CIBR closed below its 18-day middle band (103.17). X mentions 7,796 on 11-04 (-10% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.1 (little curated coverage; CrowdStrike–CoreWeave partnership). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| AI build-out | Robotics and physical AI | BOTZ, ROBO | Rolling over | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | BOTZ 32.81 (+1.5% on 11-04) is -5.4% vs its 50-day and -10.1% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -7.7 pts, 1-month flow −$35M. BOTZ closed below its 18-day middle band (33.37); %K crossed back over 20 (expect drift to middle band). X mentions 10,999 on 11-04 (+9% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.0 (no curated coverage). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| AI build-out | Quantum computing | QTUM | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | QTUM 130.55 (-1.2% on 11-04) is -10.5% vs its 50-day and -5.4% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -15.5 pts, 1-month flow +$5M. QTUM closed below its 18-day middle band (138.94); close at lower 18-day 2-SD band (%B 0.09). X mentions 1,645 on 11-04 (-26% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.0 (no curated coverage). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Power and nuclear | AI power demand and data-center backlash | XLU, URA, NLR, URNM, GRID, SRVR, DTCR | Push up | watch (PROVISIONAL) | XLU 43.61 (+0.4% on 11-04) is +4.4% vs its 50-day and -1.6% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +7.5 pts, 1-month flow −$632M. XLU closed above its 18-day middle band (42.49); stochastic 14,3,5 embedded above 80 for 17 days. X mentions 2,105 on 11-04 (+68% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.5 (data-center backlash: $173M of election ads against data centers; new Democratic governors in TX/OH/GA). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Power and nuclear | Nuclear and small modular reactors | NLR, URA | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | NLR 88.27 (-2.0% on 11-04) is -15.9% vs its 50-day and -29.2% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -17.8 pts, 1-month flow −$76M. NLR closed below its 18-day middle band (93.56); close at lower 18-day 2-SD band (%B 0.08). X mentions 5,533 on 11-04 (+16% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.0 (sparse: uranium pitched as “real trade” (CTO Larsson), no hard news). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Power and nuclear | Power grid and “bring your own power” | GRID | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | GRID 162.24 (-3.1% on 11-04) is -7.4% vs its 50-day and -9.3% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -10.4 pts, 1-month flow +$182M. GRID closed below its 18-day middle band (168.65). X mentions 2,006 on 11-04 (+31% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.2 (sparse; data-center build timing questioned). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Hard assets and materials | Debasement trade: gold and silver | GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ | Rolling over | watch (PROVISIONAL) | GLD 372.49 (+3.7% on 11-04) is -3.7% vs its 50-day and -9.6% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -1.0 pts, 1-month flow −$2.04B. GLD closed below its 18-day middle band (372.66); %K crossed back over 20 (expect drift to middle band). X mentions 8,716 on 11-04 (+2% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.2 (miners bounced ~9% but Epstein “Metals: Bear Market Rolls On”, Hedgeye bearish GDX trend, “silver could fall to $20”). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Hard assets and materials | Critical minerals | COPX, REMX | Rolling over | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | COPX 74.56 (+4.0% on 11-04) is -11.5% vs its 50-day and -10.5% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -12.0 pts, 1-month flow −$98M. COPX closed below its 18-day middle band (77.15); stochastic 14,3,5 below 20 day 1 (not yet embedded). X mentions 1,706 on 11-04 (+29% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.1 (FT: “Copper is booming but not everyone is striking gold”). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Hard assets and materials | Rare earths | REMX | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | REMX 51.73 (+4.0% on 11-04) is -18.9% vs its 50-day and -37.7% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -17.3 pts, 1-month flow −$16M. REMX closed below its 18-day middle band (53.33); stochastic 14,3,5 below 20 day 1 (not yet embedded). X mentions 874 on 11-04 (+24% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.0 (no curated coverage). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Hard assets and materials | Copper and lithium | COPX, LIT | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | COPX 74.56 (+4.0% on 11-04) is -11.5% vs its 50-day and -10.5% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -12.0 pts, 1-month flow −$98M. COPX closed below its 18-day middle band (77.15); stochastic 14,3,5 below 20 day 1 (not yet embedded). X mentions 6,319 on 11-04 (+6% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.2 (FT copper boom piece; COPX +4%). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Crypto | Bitcoin | IBIT | Rolling over | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | IBIT 45.33 (+2.9% on 11-04) is -1.2% vs its 50-day and +9.6% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -4.9 pts, 1-month flow +$932M. IBIT closed below its 18-day middle band (45.82); %K crossed back over 20 (expect drift to middle band). X mentions 67,542 on 11-04 (-6% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.2 (“Crypto’s easy years in Washington just ended” (Yahoo); midterms uncertainty (Reuters); crypto Fear & Greed 26 to 34 (Cryptotwits)). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Crypto | Ethereum and altcoin outflows | ETHA, BLOK | Rolling over (was Rolling over (price-only)) | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | ETHA 54.74 (+5.7% on 11-04) is -3.1% vs its 50-day and +11.1% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -8.5 pts, 1-month flow −$8.16B. ETHA closed above its 18-day middle band (53.97); stochastic rose above 20 today after embed (1st day); FIRST close above 18-day middle band (Epstein long-entry trigger). X mentions 39,911 on 11-04 (+8% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.1 (tokenization news flow only (Cryptotwits)). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Crypto | Bitcoin miners | WGMI | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | WGMI 26.83 (-8.6% on 11-04) is -33.9% vs its 50-day and -43.9% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -38.7 pts, 1-month flow −$44M. WGMI closed below its 18-day middle band (31.45); stochastic 14,3,5 embedded below 20 for 3 days (1 one-day dip(s) forgiven). X mentions 5,970 on 11-04 (+36% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.2 (IREN delays cited in Microsoft capex shortfall (SemiAnalysis); a miner signed an AI lease (Daily Rip)). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Rates, Fed and banks | Hawkish Fed hold, inflation and jobs report | TLT, IEF, KRE | Push up | watch (PROVISIONAL) | TLT 81.76 (+0.8% on 11-04) is +1.7% vs its 50-day and -3.3% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +7.4 pts, 1-month flow −$1.07B. TLT closed above its 18-day middle band (80.58); stochastic dipped under 80 today after embed (1st day; embed holds only if it recovers tomorrow). X mentions 10,997 on 11-04 (+10% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.0 (“midterms did not erase inflation problem” (CNBC) vs 10-year yield down about 6 bp to ~4.90%; Fed-independence checks). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Rates, Fed and banks | Rate-cut rotation | IWM, ITB, ARKK | Start (was Rolling over) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | Stage moved Rolling over → Start: IWM reclaimed its 50-day and homebuilders (ITB +7.3% on 11-04) jumped on lower-tariff and lower-yield hopes, but IWM/ARKK still show 1-month outflows (post-hoc chatter). IWM 284.02 (+1.5% on 11-04) is +0.3% vs its 50-day and +1.8% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +2.5 pts, 1-month flow −$2.63B. IWM closed above its 18-day middle band (277.34); close at upper 18-day 2-SD band (%B 0.94; no new longs, profit-take zone). X mentions 1,985 on 11-04 (-11% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.5 (homebuilders soared on lower-tariff hopes (UBS via CNBC); small caps up; yields down). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Rates, Fed and banks | Big banks over regional banks | KBWB, KBE | Start (was Start (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | Buy setup (KBWB/KBE above both averages, inflows) but KBWB closed above its upper 18-day 2-SD band, so per Epstein no new entry; wait for a pullback toward the middle band. KBWB 91.26 (+2.4% on 11-04) is +0.7% vs its 50-day and +2.6% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +5.7 pts, 1-month flow +$374M. KBWB closed above its 18-day middle band (88.05); close above upper 18-day 2-SD Bollinger Band (target zone; no new longs); stochastic 14,3,5 above 80 day 1 (not yet embedded; day 2 = most at risk). X mentions 1,288 on 11-04 (+28% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.4 (bank ETFs extended gains; little direct coverage). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Energy, geopolitics and defense | Oil and the Iran war / Hormuz | USO, XLE, XOP, OIH | Rolling over (was Peak) | consider trimming (PROVISIONAL) | Stage moved Peak → Rolling over: oil crashed on war-end expectations after the midterms. USO 145.41 (-8.1% on 11-04) is -4.0% vs its 50-day and +16.1% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +1.9 pts, 1-month flow +$314M. USO closed below its 18-day middle band (160.23); close below lower 18-day 2-SD Bollinger Band. X mentions 31,019 on 11-04 (+24% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.7 (crude crashed ~8–9% (Brent settled $94.62, WTI $88.12) as Vance blamed the war and Democrats vowed to end it). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Energy, geopolitics and defense | US midterms: policy, defense, data-center rules | ITA, XAR, SHLD | Rolling over (was Start) | consider trimming (was watch) (PROVISIONAL) | Stage moved Start → Rolling over: the vote is done (Democrats took both chambers), X mentions spiked to the highest daily count in the 6-day window, and defense/“policy” ETFs fell (sell-the-news). ITA 212.84 (-1.5% on 11-04) is -0.3% vs its 50-day and -6.9% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +3.8 pts, 1-month flow −$126M. ITA closed above its 18-day middle band (208.08); stochastic 14,3,5 above 80 day 1 (not yet embedded; day 2 = most at risk). X mentions 139,572 on 11-04 (+193% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.2 (blue wave; market cheered gridlock (Dow +3%) but defense and data-center names fell). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Energy, geopolitics and defense | Defense primes | ITA, PPA | Rolling over (was Push up (price-only)) | consider trimming (was watch) (PROVISIONAL) | Stage moved Push up → Rolling over: ITA and PPA slipped back under their 50-day averages and stay below the 200-day, with outflows. ITA 212.84 (-1.5% on 11-04) is -0.3% vs its 50-day and -6.9% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +3.8 pts, 1-month flow −$126M. ITA closed above its 18-day middle band (208.08); stochastic 14,3,5 above 80 day 1 (not yet embedded; day 2 = most at risk). X mentions 2,391 on 11-04 (+53% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood -0.4 (Rheinmetall cut guidance; defense funding seen tied to ending the war; XAR −3.7%). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Healthcare | Defensive healthcare rotation | XLV, IYH, VHT | Push up (was Push up (price-only)) | consider buying (PROVISIONAL) | Trend intact, but XLV, IYH and VHT all closed above their upper 18-day 2-SD bands; Epstein: hold/let run while embedded, no new adds at the band. XLV 189.66 (+3.1% on 11-04) is +9.7% vs its 50-day and +19.2% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +15.1 pts, 1-month flow +$1.64B. XLV closed above its 18-day middle band (179.44); close above upper 18-day 2-SD Bollinger Band (target zone; no new longs); stochastic 14,3,5 embedded above 80 for 14 days (1 one-day dip(s) forgiven). X mentions 1,283 on 11-04 (+4% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.3 (healthcare longs led (Hedgeye); CVS −12.5% on breakup; Democrats target healthcare costs). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Healthcare | GLP-1 obesity drugs | PPH, IBB | Push up (was Push up (price-only)) | consider buying (PROVISIONAL) | Trend intact; PPH closed above its upper 18-day 2-SD band and IBB is at the upper band, so no new adds there per Epstein. PPH 122.11 (+3.0% on 11-04) is +8.3% vs its 50-day and +12.9% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +14.5 pts, 1-month flow −$0M. PPH closed above its 18-day middle band (115.43); close above upper 18-day 2-SD Bollinger Band (target zone; no new longs); stochastic 14,3,5 above 80 day 1 (not yet embedded; day 2 = most at risk). X mentions 3,797 on 11-04 (-2% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.4 (Novo CEO upbeat on launch (Yahoo); AstraZeneca $10B Rhythm offer). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Defensives and value | Quality dividend and value | SCHD | Push up (was Push up (price-only)) | consider buying (PROVISIONAL) | Trend intact (stochastic embedded above 80), but X chatter is thin and falling: flows without story. SCHD 36.21 (+1.9% on 11-04) is +5.9% vs its 50-day and +11.6% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +11.8 pts, 1-month flow +$2.38B. SCHD closed above its 18-day middle band (34.87); stochastic 14,3,5 embedded above 80 for 14 days. X mentions 464 on 11-04 (-22% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.2 (sparse; dividend-income pieces (The Compound)). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Defensives and value | Staples, telecom and real estate outflows | IYK, IYZ, IYR | Push up (was Push up (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | IYK 79.78 (+2.4% on 11-04) is +7.1% vs its 50-day and +9.0% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY +12.4 pts, 1-month flow −$263M. IYK closed above its 18-day middle band (77.01); close at upper 18-day 2-SD band (%B 1.0; no new longs, profit-take zone). X mentions 463 on 11-04 (-2% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.1 (no direct coverage; REITs up as yields fell). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| Reshoring and industry | Reshoring and automation | RSHO, ARKQ | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | ARKQ 107.74 (-2.9% on 11-04) is -9.9% vs its 50-day and -13.0% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -13.7 pts, 1-month flow +$13M. ARKQ closed below its 18-day middle band (114.13); close at lower 18-day 2-SD band (%B 0.03). X mentions 346 on 11-04 (+29% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.0 (no curated coverage). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| International | China tech de-risking | CQQQ, KWEB | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | CQQQ 40.36 (+6.8% on 11-04) is -8.9% vs its 50-day and -19.0% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -8.8 pts, 1-month flow −$445M. CQQQ closed below its 18-day middle band (40.41); stochastic rose above 20 today after embed (1st day). X mentions 14,749 on 11-04 (+5% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.3 (China tech rallied (CQQQ +6.8%); Apple China worries). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |
| International | Emerging markets excluding China, and Brazil | EMXC, EWZ | Faded (was Faded (price-only)) | watch (PROVISIONAL) | EMXC 89.72 (-0.0% on 11-04) is -7.7% vs its 50-day and -2.5% vs its 200-day SMA, RS 1m vs SPY -10.4 pts, 1-month flow +$2.50B. EMXC closed below its 18-day middle band (92.8). X mentions 920 on 11-04 (-1% Tue–Wed vs Fri–Mon), mood +0.0 (dollar up 3.4% YTD squeezes EM debt (Cryptotwits); India tax-cut talk). PROVISIONAL (story history short until ~19 Nov 2026). | 2026-11-05 |